NFL draft quarterback tiers Scouts and execs stack 11 QBs

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For the third time in four years, quarterbacks will dominate the discussion around the NFL draft.

The 2021 and 2023 classes saw passers occupy three of the first four picks, and that could be the case in the 2024 NFL draft beginning April 25 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC, ESPN App). The teams at the top -- Bears (No. 1), Commanders (No. 2) and Patriots (No. 3) -- are all hoping to channel Houston's success with C.J. Stroud last season, coveting the idea of a brilliant passer under a rookie contract. This is one of the deeper quarterback drafts in recent memory, with at least seven passers angling for Day 1 or Day 2 billing.

The NFL's new reality is quarterbacks, always highly scrutinized, are ultimately elevated come draft season. And they will play early: Eight rookie draft picks started a total of 60 games last season. The premium nature of the position and long-standing mythology around it ensures fans and draft observers will be watching closely to see where the quarterbacks land.

The NFL executives, scouts and coaches tasked with evaluating those players will be watching, too, after spending weeks and months determining how they believe each will fare at the next level. We turned to those insiders to give us a window into the construction of quarterback draft boards, offering their own player comparisons and a sense of where they believe each of the draft-worthy QBs could be selected. We then placed those quarterbacks in order and into tiers, reflecting the consensus of experts within the league on the abilities of each player.

Tier 1 Caleb Williams, USC

Most frequent scout/exec comp: Aaron Rodgers

The only quarterback to receive a Tier 1 grade on every ballot. "He's a star," an NFL coordinator said of Williams. Added an NFL personnel director: "From a talent standpoint, he's in his own class." Williams' "rare gifts" make him an exception to the rest of this year's group, a veteran AFC scout said, because of his high-level instincts, foot quickness and accuracy. He doesn't have one glaring weakness on which scouts harp. "He makes 'holy s---' throws on a regular basis," the scout said.

Not all teams were thrilled with Williams' pre-draft process. He treated the NFL combine as if he were visiting a real estate open house, casually, declining medical exams and doing a few team interviews before leaving Indy. Teams described his interviews as "good, not great" and "relatively engaged" and noted Williams was not in full-blown interview mode like other prospects, though they suspect that's a byproduct of being a player who knows he's going No. 1.

Williams' pro day was "just OK," according to an AFC exec. "I don't think he's had a great spring," the exec said. "He's still going first. That's pretty much a done deal. But while he was a no-brainer three months ago, there's at least a conversation now. Even still, I think he's a smart kid, a good kid. He just knows where he's going."

Most say the perception that Williams insists on making plays on the run instead of within the confines of a system is overblown. Of the 87 players in Football Bowl Subdivision history to record 10,000 yards of total offense and 100 touchdowns responsible for, Williams has the fewest turnovers at 19.

"Go back to Oklahoma and early USC with [Williams' No. 1 Trojans receiver in 2022] Jordan Addison and he played on time," an NFL offensive coach said. "He has that gear and will be willing to do that, I believe. His supporting cast was not as good [in 2023] so he had to make some things happen."

Other comps included Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray.

Despite any quirks, including questions about his combine strategy, Williams is not considered a red flag from a personality standpoint by scouts who spoke to us.

"Everyone who spends time with him says he's a really good kid," an AFC scout said. "The noise on the outside... I don't think that's him."

Tier 2 Jayden Daniels, LSU

Most frequent scout/exec comp: No clear consensus

Daniels has a slight edge on Drake Maye for the No. 2 spot in the 2024 quarterback hierarchy because of his readiness to play. Firmly on the radar as a top-three pick, Daniels is tabbed by many executives as the most viable option for Washington at No. 2, though first-year GM Adam Peters has hidden his plans well.

Daniels proved a potent passer, particularly in the intermediate range, during his Heisman Trophy campaign at LSU, improving greatly from his erratic start at Arizona State. He produced a historic season at LSU, ranking first in FBS with 4,946 yards of total offense, third highest in SEC history, behind only Joe Burrow (2019) and Johnny Manziel (2012).

"Elite traits," an NFC executive said. "He's always been an athlete but showed more clubs in the bag. Throws the ball really well and his decision-making is good. Accurate. Grown a lot as far as operating a passing game with rhythm and timing. Can make progressions. An impressive prospect."

That said, Daniels' arm strength is considered above average, not elite. He's a running quarterback but a more polished thrower than many dual-threat passers, per multiple scouts. Multiple execs compared his running style to Robert Griffin III out of Baylor, showing impressive straight-line burst. Daniels' frame and durability are concerns. Other comps included Russell Wilson and Bryce Young.

"He played 190 to 200 [pounds] his whole career and he takes shots," an NFC exec said. "This year, he showed more play from the pocket, which helps him a ton. Better thrower than Lamar [Jackson] was coming out and it's not close. He can do the read-option and the mobility stuff. The question is, when those easy 20-yard runs aren't there in the NFL, is he willing to take the easy 8-yard gain from the pocket and avoid taking hits? He's got to protect himself better. I think he will."

Daniels threw with precision at his pro day, with Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury noticeably excited by what he saw. The feedback on Daniels' team interviews was positive, with one AFC coach calling his presence "like the cool kid that everyone wants to talk to and be around," which will help him in locker room settings.

Down-in, down-out accuracy is a concern for some.

"Love the total package, and his legs will buy him time to create and make plays, but from a condensed pocket, in those 'gotta have it' situations, he can struggle when the pocket isn't clean," an AFC scout said. "He would make the receiver work for the ball, where at the next level that's a batted pass or incompletion."

Drake Maye, North Carolina

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Josh Allen (with less arm strength), Carson Wentz

Teams that place high value on physical traits in their quarterback evaluation will love Maye, who is the classic upside play with high boom-or-bust potential. "Extremely gifted athlete, best size of all the guys -- confident he's still developing with enormous upside," said an NFC exec of the 6-foot-4, 223-pound Maye. "Can make all of the throws and is a very good athlete to create on his own as a runner and passer. Highly competitive. He's got star potential."

Maye helped elevate a subpar supporting cast to produce 359 plays of 10-plus yards since 2022, second to Michael Penix Jr. in the FBS. While some evaluators place him in Tier 1, above Daniels and on par with Williams, others knocked him for lack of refinement.

"Huge upside, but way more of a project than he appears to be," an NFL coordinator said. "Footwork all over the place, same with his eyes. Kind of just makes plays off raw talent and athleticism. Thought he would be much more polished."

Multiple coaches say Maye flourishes while creating off schedule but not often enough when on time, with one pointing out: "I've got a 50-play cut-up of him dropping back, seeing an open window and taking off to run."

To be sure, Maye underwent coordinator changes at North Carolina and didn't have enough support at the receiver and offensive line spots. His running ability is a premium, with shades of Allen, though his arm strength isn't considered on par with Allen or Justin Herbert -- "good but not that good," as one AFC scout put it, who rated it at a seven out of 10. Maye throws an impressive deep ball, particularly on post routes, coaches say.

"He does need some time, and there will be growing pains, but you take him because he has the most upside of everybody," one high-ranking NFL personnel man said. "There's major ability there. I worry that if you take him and you don't have a supporting cast and a good offensive line or receivers and he has to play right away, he will struggle early."

Multiple evaluators pointed out Minnesota is the perfect place for Maye in that regard, should the Vikings move up to get him. Scouts noted he's smart, relaxed and even witty in interviews.

"Super competitive and will rush for 400 to 500 yards a year," an AFC scout said. "He's just never played big in big moments, doesn't have that signature win to elevate his team, though he wasn't always in the position to provide that."

Tier 2.5 J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Most frequent scout/exec comp: Mix of Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy

McCarthy is easily the most fascinating -- and polarizing -- quarterback prospect in the draft. Evaluators are truly all over the map. Some see elite talent, maybe the best long-term play of the group, while others see fringe first-round or even second-round talent. He's very close to Tier 2.

"I don't see him getting past [Pick] 5 or 6," an NFC exec said. "Definitely not getting out of the top 10. Anticipation, decision-making, preparation, coming from pro-style offense -- he's got a lot going for him. You see him process, go through progressions. That's an easier predictor of what it would look like at the NFL level."

Added a high-ranking NFL official: "I'm buying the hype that he goes high. He's got something to him from a leadership and makeup standpoint that resonates."

McCarthy gets the game manager label, having averaged 22.6 passing attempts per game over the past two seasons (29 games). That lack of in-game volume only heightened the scrutiny around McCarthy's pro day, where McCarthy "validated some things" with "one of the best pro days I've seen as a passer," according to one veteran NFL personnel evaluator.

"Movement ability, arm talent, laying the football, throwing off-platform. He did it all [at his pro day]," the evaluator said. As one NFL national scout put it, "[McCarthy] wasn't a game manager because they had to hide something -- he has high-level traits. It's more a function of Jim Harbaugh's offense. He's never been asked to throw 30-plus times a game but I think he can handle it." An AFC offensive coach counters: "[Former Michigan coach Jim] Harbaugh didn't trust him like he did Andrew Luck. When he makes a mistake, Harbaugh leans into the running game even more so during the flow of the game."

Multiple teams believe Minnesota or Denver could be trade-up options for McCarthy, who's considered a good fit in both places. He'd be best served to sit a year behind a veteran, per multiple scouts. McCarthy's 39.0 total QBR when under pressure was among the best of nearly 250 FBS quarterbacks with at least 25 starts over the past decade, trailing only Joe Burrow (49.0) and Trevor Lawrence (44.0). Stroud was tied with McCarthy at 39.0.

"I just don't see it," said an AFC scout of the McCarthy hype. "I don't see consistent accuracy, his ability to get it done inside the white lines, and [the Michigan staff] didn't call games or play offensively like they trusted him." But one reason he's rising? "What you're seeing now is the coaches and coordinators are more involved in the draft process [in March and April], and they are realizing, s---, he's a pro already," the NFC exec said. "And he showed more arm strength at his pro day than I thought he had."

Tier 3 Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Tua Tagovailoa (with a better arm), Jordan Love

Penix is in the Round 1 conversation according to multiple teams, despite a lengthy injury history. He's one of the best pure passers in the draft, a true point guard who distributes with relative ease -- and with zip.

"A lot will be determined by medical [evaluations] and teams will differ, but, no, I don't think he's there in [Round] 2," an AFC executive said.

Penix's collegiate medical history is checkered, including two ACL tears to his right knee that ended his 2018 and 2020 seasons, and injuries to both his non-throwing and throwing shoulders. But he put together a completely healthy season for Washington last year and received a clean bill of health during NFL combine testing, with independent approval from renowned knee and shoulder specialist Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Penix followed that up with explosiveness at his pro day, with 40 times in the 4.5s along with a 36½-inch vertical, though scouts would like to see him use those athletic traits more. Multiple teams say the medical realities are something teams will have to monitor and have a plan for but likely won't sink his draft stock.

Penix was prolific in 2023 with 4,903 yards and 36 touchdown passes for the Huskies. He throws with a bit of a windup but overcomes it with a natural release.

"He's just solid at everything," said an AFC exec who placed Penix immediately after Maye and Daniels, and before McCarthy. "He can get streaky, but he's a good decision-maker who distributes the football well -- if a guy's open, he's going to find him. That, to me, is his secret sauce."

Penix can throw with touch and timing. One NFL offensive coach thought Penix struggled at times throwing accurately to the left side of the field but is "brilliant" when throwing to his right. He will need to improve throwing from outside the pocket, where he completed 38.5% of his throws last season, ranked 114th nationally. But that's nitpicky given his enormous production at Washington, where he became the first Pac-12 player with multiple 4,500-yard passing seasons.

"Very natural thrower," an exec said. "I thought he struggled to play in short and intermediate areas where precision is required in the NFL, though I think he can handle that. It's just that those windows are bigger in college so he'll have to adjust when they shrink."

Penix was "exceptional" in team interviews, according to multiple coaches. He turns 24 in May, which could turn off teams obsessed with upside.

"There's a lot to like -- he's like a good point guard with a plus arm," an AFC exec said. "I wouldn't classify him as the type of player who will carry a team, but if he's got a good supporting cast, he can deliver the ball consistently. People get hung up on the left-handed thing but that doesn't matter."

Bo Nix, Oregon

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo (more explosive player)

Considered one of the safest prospects among quarterbacks, Nix set NCAA records for starts (61) and completion percentage in a single season (77.4), the latter surpassing Mac Jones' 77.3 in 2020. His 4,508 passing yards in 2023 broke an Oregon school record. Nix, the son of coach and former Auburn quarterback great Patrick Nix, was edged slightly by Penix in the voting.

"He's as efficient as they come," an AFC offensive coach said. "If it's on time, he can spin it out and throw with accuracy."

Nix possesses adequate arm strength and good mobility and will take what a defense gives him. Several teams consider him a Day 2 option -- and a good fallback for teams that don't select a passer in the early first round -- but acknowledge he could get pushed up due to the quarterback needs of several teams. A complaint from multiple teams: Nix tends to freeze up in big moments.

"Coaches love him," an NFC exec said. "Knows football, coach's son, can talk it and walk it. He can talk it up on the board, but when the lights come on and picture changes, it's a little bit of a concern. If he thinks it's Cover 2, safety rotation on snap, one-high [and instead] becomes Cover 3, how quickly can he adjust and process?"

Multiple coaches who interviewed Nix said his interviews felt scripted and rehearsed but he shines when he lets loose and shows personality. Nix turned 24 in February.

"Probably doesn't have [same] ceiling as some of the other, younger quarterbacks with upside," an NFC scout said. "But he'll be a solid player. Fit and system will matter. For him to be successful in the NFL he'll have to play as a ball distributor, making plays based on timing and rhythm patterns. He can extend plays and play with toughness but sometimes relies too heavily on his legs."

Tier 4 Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Sam Howell, Will Levis

Closer to Penix and Nix than people might think, Rattler has a compelling Day 2 argument on draft week due to his confidence as a thrower and in interview settings.

"He can freaking spin it, now," an AFC offensive coach said. "One of the best pure throwers in the draft."

Several scouts agreed with that assessment. A veteran AFC scout called him the most underrated QB in the process.

"He grew up over the duration of his career -- live arm, tough as s---," the scout said. "Horrible OL play, was getting killed out there this year."

Rattler took 40 sacks in 12 games last season, finishing with five 300-yard games but 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Rattler's 67.5 career completion percentage is the best in South Carolina's history.

Rattler "exuded confidence" in team interviews, per an NFL coordinator. He had maturity questions to answer in the process, from unflattering high school clips as part of the "QB1" series to sulking after a benching in Oklahoma. But teams have been pleased with how Rattler has moved beyond such dialogue.

"He is said to have matured from the past and I believe it -- super humble kid," an AFC executive said. "We had good information on that that he came on the other side of it. The bigger concern might be decision-making from the pocket. You would have liked to have seen more production from him."

Michael Pratt, Tulane

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Aidan O'Connell, Jake Browning

Tulane's all-time leader in passing yards (9,603) and passing touchdowns (90), Pratt turned a two-win Tulane team into a 21-3 juggernaut his last two seasons. Pratt was impressive in a 46-45 win over Caleb Williams and USC in the 2023 Cotton Bowl, the school's most significant bowl win since the 1935 Sugar Bowl. A knee injury affected his final season with the Green Wave, but he followed that up with a solid Senior Bowl performance as a standout in midweek practices.

"Better arm talent than given credit for and he's very aggressive -- will let it rip and make challenging throws," an AFC executive said. "Not super high-end traits but adequate, decent size, will compete. Won't wow you with his ball placement on a consistent basis."

The four-year starter was a three-year captain at Tulane. He has adequate size at 6-foot-2½ and 217 pounds, and a common refrain from NFL evaluators is that Pratt will play in the league for a long time as a reliable quarterback -- if only as a solid backup with upside to play potentially meaningful snaps.

"Gritty, competitive with enough arm and athleticism to hurt you in different ways," an NFC exec said. "Great kid, hard worker, smart. You can talk yourself into upside with him. At worst is a great backup but worth taking a chance on."

Joe Milton III, Tennessee

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Ryan Mallett, Josh Freeman

Milton is an intriguing talent with an ultra-raw skill set. At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds with a massive arm, he will attract teams looking for Day 3 value. He had the best velocity as a passer at the Senior Bowl, which he validated at his pro day with several 70-plus-yard deep shots.

"He's got shades of Cam Newton based on his ability -- but his football acumen and his accuracy are issues," an AFC scout said. "Just doesn't have the feel for the game or the position that you'd like to see."

Milton's 28.6% completion rate on passes of 20-plus air yards tied for 104th in the FBS. The flip side: Milton threw 216 passes at Tennessee before his first career interception, the second-longest streak of attempts without a pick in program history behind Hendon Hooker (261). Teams are skeptical of Tennessee's college-friendly Air Raid system that coaches and scouts say allows quarterbacks to read half the field on on-read plays while stationary, which isn't life in the NFL.

"He's a developmental player that someone will take a chance on and hope they can mold him into an NFL quarterback," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "He'll be exciting to work with because of the immense talent and he hasn't played a lot of football, so he's a bit of a blank canvas. And he has rushing ability to go with the arm strength." Added an AFC exec: "Was great in interviews, showed good recall and football acumen. There are just moments where he just short-circuits out there and makes you scratch your head at his decision-making."

Tier 5 Jordan Travis, Florida State

Most frequent scout/exec comp: Tyler Huntley

Travis was efficient at Florida State with 20 touchdowns, two interceptions and an 80.1 QBR through 11 games before fracturing his ankle Nov. 18 vs. North Carolina. Travis ditched the walking boot before the NFL combine and plans to be ready for training camp. He's mostly considered a Tier 5 passer, but some evaluators see more upside. Travis turns 24 in May and measured at 6-foot-1 1/8, 200 pounds at the combine.

"He reminds me a little bit of Dak Prescott coming out of Mississippi State -- Dak wasn't a refined passer at the time but he got the job done and was a gamer. This kid has some of that to him."

Travis showed mobility throughout his FSU career, rushing for 1,950 career yards and scoring seven touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. 

"Relatively small frame with a wonky windup but a good release on the ball -- he's got a shot," an AFC personnel evaluator said.

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame

Most frequent scout/exec comps: C.J. Beathard, Nate Sudfeld

Hartman is an experienced signal-caller who threw for 101 touchdowns over his last three collegiate seasons. He spent five seasons at Wake Forest before transferring to Notre Dame for his final year of eligibility. Over the past half-decade, no FBS quarterback has completed more passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield than Hartman (138). His 45 passing touchdowns on deep throws during that span is second to Dillon Gabriel (49). 

Hartman turns 25 in July, and teams don't see great upside, with him clearly projected as a down-the-line backup, well behind Travis in the voting.

"Doesn't have the ability to be an NFL starter. More of a quality backup," an AFC executive said. "Really like him as a guy and a player, but he doesn't have the arm strength and athleticism that you need in my opinion."

Funny side note: Asked for a comp, an NFL personnel evaluator offered "Brad Pitt."